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Mortgage Rates Report: May 29, 2008

Mortgage rates end May higher

What goes up, must come down.  Spinning Wheel, got to go ’round
- Blood, Sweat and Tears

 

This is panic selling that we’re seeing in the fixed-income securities market.  I knew it would happen but I was early.  The 30-year fixed rate mortgage was at 5.625%, nine days ago.  Yesterday, it went to 6.0%.  Today a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is at 6.25%.  Expect Miami mortgage rates to be above 6.0% for the next two weeks; we should see them creep down by the end of June to the sub-6 level.

 

What should you do if you can’t wait?   Lock in a 5/1 ARM.  Today, that rate is just 5.375%.  That’s almost a full percentage point discount to the 30-year fixed rate loan.

 

Rates will improve…but it’s gonna get ugly before it gets better.



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Posted on May 29, 2008 20:32:48 by Brian.Brady
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Mortgage Rates Report: May 21, 2008

Lock all loans at application

I’m locking mortgage rates at application for all loan types, regardless of closing date.  I’ve been recommending locks for three weeks.  Rates improved about .375% so I was incorrect.  Why then, should you heed my advice now?  Let’s look at this chart:

 

trading

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This chart is pricing for the last 30 days for mortgage-backed securities.  When MBS prices go up, mortgage rates come down.  In this case, I noticed a meteoric rise in MBS prices in the last week in April (off a low of 99.5).  I called for clients to lock on May 2, 2008, when the 30 year fixed rate mortgage was at 5.875%.  Today, it has improved to 5.875%

 

MBS prices improved to 100.75, then retreated to 99.75.  I was locking as prices improved to 100.75 again (rates lowered).  They closed down today at 100.62.  If they retreat below 99.75, we could see a 6.0% 30 year fixed rate mortgage.

 

Lock all loans.  I’m more about not losing money rather than making money when I analyze execution.  I think the risk of higher rates, in the next few weeks, is greater than any chance of lower rates.



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Posted on May 21, 2008 22:21:58 by Brian.Brady
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Kansas City Spring Homes Tour

Kansas City Spring Homes Tour

 


Kansas City Spring Homes Tour

We know its spring time when the Home Builders Association puts on their annual spring home tour in Kansas City!  It’s always so wonderful to look at the new decorating ideas & to see the wonderful homes for sale in Kansas City along with the new trends.  This is their 46th annual parade, with over 320 homes available to view between the hours of 11am & 6 pm. The homes are scattered around the eight counties surrounding Kansas City. Homes for sale in Kansas City that are on the Parade of Homes Tour range from $100,000 to $2.6 million.  You’ll have the chance to view the American Dream Award, which are held in conjunction with the Parade of Homes.  The homes that are entered compete in categories determined by price, housing styles, & I believe energy efficiency.

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Posted on May 16, 2008 10:28:01 by Cindy.DiCianni
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Mortgage Rates Report: May 14, 2008

Lock your mortgage rate immediately

Lock all mortgage rates immediately.  This is a stagflation fear we’re seeing:

 

The central bank can’t be “complacent about inflation,” Janet Yellen, president of the Fed Bank of San Francisco, said in a speech yesterday. Recent measures of consumers’ outlook for prices “highlight the risk that our attempts to deal with problems in the real economy could lead to higher inflation expectations and an erosion of our credibility,” she said. 

 

Yellen also said she anticipates inflation will slow as the labor market weakens and “commodity prices level off,” echoing comments by other policy makers.   

 

Investors project the Fed will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at its next meeting on June 25. That would be the first pause since the central bank started cutting rates in September.

           

Rising prices from overseas, reflecting the drop in the dollar, are another source of concern. U.S. businesses have leeway to boost prices as companies abroad charge more.

 

The mortgage markets will overreact for the next 5-10 days.  Mortgage rates should shoot up quickly.



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Posted on May 14, 2008 03:23:42 by Brian.Brady
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Mortgage Rates Report: May 12, 2008

Fear of inflation driving mortgage rates higher

Mortgage rates dropped, then rose to their original level, last week.  I’ve been advising  mortgage borrowers to lock all rates at application, regardless of closing date.  Did I miss an opportunity to improve clients’ rates?  I don’t think so.  My approach is more one of limiting losses than improving gains and last week, I thought there was a threat of higher mortgage rates; I still do.

 

Inflation data is released Wednesday and Unemployment data is due out Thursday.  These two figures could be the tempest in the teapot and really affect mortgage rates.  We just think there is too much risk to be floating (holding out for a better rate).  If markets overreact (and they usually do) we’ll change that recommendation but for now, we think it’s prudent to lock your mortgage rates.

 

Currently, the 5/1 ARM offers the best value at 4.875% wholesale rate.  The 30 year fixed rate loan is 5.875% wholesale rate.  While there is risk in losing the rate after 5 years, most borrowers don’t hold a mortgage that long.  If you are thinking of moving in the next few years, it would be well to examine the benefits of refinancing your home loan to a low 5/1 ARM rate.

 

Contact me at (858)-777-9751 with more questions.



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Posted on May 12, 2008 09:59:36 by Brian.Brady